基于Copula函数的泾河流域水沙关系演变特征分析

为了掌握泾河流域水沙演变规律,基于张家山水文站1956-2010 年径流与输沙量数据,采用滑动平均法分析流域水沙变化,提出应用滑动相关系数法诊断水沙关系变异,与双累积曲线法相互验证,选取皮尔逊III 型分布拟合变异前后水沙分布,基于Copula 函数建立水沙联合分布,对比分析泾河流域水沙变化特征,研究不同时段水沙丰枯遭遇情况.结果表明:① 水沙关系于20 世纪80 年代发生变异;② 以1982 年为分割点,相比于1956-1982 年,1983-2010 年水沙均值减小,设计频率P≤90%时水沙值均减小,P >90%时,径流减小,输沙量增加;③ 两阶段水沙丰枯同步频率大于丰枯异步频率,“水丰沙枯或水枯沙丰”遭遇组合概率最小,变异后时段(1983-2010 年)各种遭遇组合频率分布更为均匀,水沙丰枯异步频率变大.     

从"两条主线论"考察中国文明进程

以可持续发展理论审视,在中国文明的发展进程中,除了存在传统史学所强调的“人与人”的关系这条主线外,还存在着“人与自然”关系的主线,本文以中国的若干重大历史事件为例证,初步论证了“人与人”和“人与自然”两条主线的相互作用关系是中国文明发展演变的主要驱动力。因此,实现人与人关系的公平和人与自然关系的和谐,是实现可持续发展的前提。     

PROMOTING GROUND WATER POLLUTION PREVENTION IN SMALL BUSINESSES1

ABSTRACT: Although they have not been the focus of major regulations, small businesses can contribute pollutants to ground water through routine practices. Because strict regulation of millions of micro firms is not likely, water resource professionals face a challenge of how to reach small business operators with effective pollution prevention messages. The purpose of this study was to examine the factors that influence a small business operator to adopt measures that reduce potential ground water pollution. We looked at how information delivery, internal business characteristics, and external relationships are associated with voluntary preventive measures. Mail surveys from small businesses in New Jersey municipalities and interviews with business owners provided data about business characteristics and current pollution prevention activities. Findings suggested that businesses doing the most to prevent ground water pollution were generally more connected to external organizations and had more financial and technical resources. The study also discovered that small business owners fear government involvement in their affairs. The study concludes with recommendations to encourage more voluntary adoption of prevention measures by businesses. These center on separating assistance programs from enforcement and involving industry peer groups in an effort to make information available in a non-threatening manner.     

Identifying Determinants of Nations' Wetland Management Programs Using Structural Equation Modeling: An Exploratory Analysis

Integrated management and policy models suggest that solutions to environmental issues may be linked to the socioeconomic and political characteristics of a nation. In this study, we empirically explore these suggestions by applying them to the wetland management activities of nations. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate a model of national wetland management effort and one of national wetland protection. Using five predictor variables of social capital, economic capital, environmental and political characteristics, and land-use pressure, the multivariate models were able to explain 60% of the variation in nations' wetland protection efforts based on data from 90 nations, as defined by level of participation in the international wetland convention. Social capital had the largest direct effect on wetland protection efforts, suggesting that increased social development may eventually lead to better wetland protection. In contrast, increasing economic development had a negative linear relationship with wetland protection efforts, suggesting the need for explicit wetland protection programs as nations continue to focus on economic development. Government, environmental characteristics, and land-use pressure also had a positive direct effect on wetland protection, and mediated the effect of social capital on wetland protection. Explicit wetland protection policies, combined with a focus on social development, would lead to better wetland protection at the national level.     

太湖流域水环境演变与人类活动耦合关系

太湖流域水环境与人类活动之间存在相互制约、相互作用的关系。从 2 0世纪 6 0年代起 ,随着经济的发展、工业化与城市化进程的加速 ,流域水环境不断恶化 ,具有表征意义的太湖水体的TP ,TN ,COD浓度不断上升。本文把环境演变的人文驱动因素归纳为人口发展、经济发展、城市化、土地利用等 ,将其与太湖流域水环境耦合 ,得出探讨性结论 :太湖流域人类活动与水环境之间的互动关系大致经历了干预、干预—弱制约、干预—制约、干预—强制约四个阶段 ,每个阶段对应着不同的人类活动特征。流域水环境恶化经历了几十年 ,而水环境修复则需要人类更长时期的共同努力     

REVERSIBLE ADSORPTION OF AQUEOUS DIVALENT COPPER ION BY ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS1

Sediments were equilibrated with solutions containing divalent copper ion. A colorimetric method using the triethylenete-tramine complex of the metal ion was employed to measure changes in uptake of copper by the sediments. Studies were made with sediments from rivers in the British Isles which were in the proximity of areas which had been mined for metals for several hundred years. For comparison, similar studies were performed with a sample of sand and a soil with a high organic content. It was possible to follow the uptake of copper ion by the materials and estimate their abilities to adsorb copper ion. In particular, a strong correlation was observed between the organic content of the sediment and the total amount of copper adsorbed by the sample. Under the employed circumstances it was possible to demonstrate that the adsorption of the metal ion was reversible.     

深水型水库藻形态功能组(MBFG)的季节演替特征

以藻类形态功能组(morphologically-based functional groups,MBFG)藻种在光学显微镜下的形态特征为基础,对具有相同形态特征的藻种进行分组,形成了面向藻类集群形态属性的功能组别.为了解藻类形态功能组在研究深水型水库藻类变化规律中的应用及藻类演替特征,于2011年8月至2013年7月对西安市金盆水库进行采样分析,采用形态功能组分类方法对金盆水库中检测出的藻类进行了分类,结合冗余分析探讨了藻类形态功能组演替及其与环境因子间的相互关系.结果表明,黑河金盆水库中的藻类可以分为5个形态功能组别:Ⅱ、Ⅳ、Ⅴ、Ⅵ、Ⅶ;水库中春夏季多种藻类形态功能组共存,秋冬季藻类形态功能组结构较为单一;在沿水深的纵向演替过程中,各形态功能组的生物密度随水深的增加而减少;在影响形态功能组演替的各个环境因子中,温度对水库表层藻类形态功能组Ⅳ和Ⅵ影响较大;表层以下各研究水层,TN的质量浓度为藻类形态功能群组Ⅵ的显著影响因素.     

黑龙江省经济增长与水环境质量之间的关系研究

选择黑龙江省为研究对象,以经济增长与环境污染水平的计量模型环境库兹涅茨曲线做为理论基础,利用黑龙江省2000年到2015年间的统计数据,选取人均GDP、工业废水排放量和生活污水排放量三个指标,分别模拟黑龙江经济增长与工业废水和生活污水的关系曲线,建立模型,分析得出工业废水的排放量随经济的增长呈先减少后增加的变化趋势,增加到一定程度后,工业废水的排放量又逐渐降低;生活污水排放量随着人均GDP的增加先下降后增加的变化趋势,并提出相应的措施来保护好水环境.     

乌江中上游底栖硅藻群落与阴阳离子、重金属间的关系

首次对乌江中上游底栖硅藻群落组成特点进行定量系统研究,得知其组成基本上呈种类多、丰度小,种类少、丰度大的分布状况。对底栖硅藻丰度和八种离子、重金属间关系进行定量分析后知Hg元素是影响底栖硅藻丰度的第一显著因子,建立了底栖硅藻丰度-汞元素曲线回归方程。可为用硅藻监测、评价河流水质提供理论基础,并为水质预警的硅藻生物指标的研究提供科学依据。     

基于GIS和遥感信息的空气污染损失研究

文章利用GIS软件、遥感手段将城市地理信息、遥感信息与城市空气污染损失相结合,利用剂量反应函数法计算济南市2002年空气二氧化硫污染造成的人体健康、建筑材料及农作物损失。GIS和遥感信息的应用有效地提高了数据的精确度,能够对数据进行空间分析,并以图像的形式直观显示结果,计算的空气污染损失结果也更为精确。研究结果表明2002年济南市仅二氧化硫污染造成的损失就达亿元,空气污染治理迫在眉睫。